CompaniesGRAB
Overview
GRAB
Grab Holdings
TechnologySuper-AppMobilityFintechASEAN
$3.54+1.4%
Market Cap
$14.50B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2026)
P/E (TTM)
87.8×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
24.0%
+24%SEC filing
Gross Margin
[awaiting: segment-level only]
SEC filing
FCF Yield
2.0%
calculated
Upside to FV
+72.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5$5B net-cash fortress on a $14.5B cap, revenue +24%, dominant ASEAN super-app — gated by the most extreme dual-class voting structure in tech.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 17d ago
Thesis
Grab is the dominant consumer platform across Southeast Asia with $5.0B of net cash ($1.22/share) underpinning a $14.5B market cap. Revenue is accelerating (+24% in Q1 2026) and adjusted EBITDA turned solidly positive. The bear case is governance, not the business: a 90:1 super-voting structure hands the founder ~70% of votes on ~3.7% economics, leaving public holders no recourse. It is a value / 3–5× re-rate thesis, not a control story.
Bull Case
Balance Sheet$5.0B net cash = $1.22/share floor protection on a $3.54 stock.
GrowthRevenue $3.37B (+20% FY25), accelerating to $955M (+24%) in Q1 2026; adj. EBITDA +60%.
TAMASEAN digital economy $300B+, growing ~15% YoY; 112M new middle-class consumers by 2035.
Fintech50–77% unbanked/underbanked across markets = a $38–60B digital financial services TAM. Superbank turned profitable (FY25).
Sentiment100% analyst Buy, avg target $6.12 (+72%). Reverse DCF implies only 2.7% FCF growth priced in.
Bear Case
Governance90:1 super-vote — the most extreme among major listed companies (Google/Meta 10:1). Founder controls ~69–75% of votes on ~3.7% economics. Event-based sunset only.
RegulatoryIndonesia (21–23% of revenue) cut commission cap to 8% (was 20%); 3–10% of EBITDA at risk per Maybank.
Cash FlowOperating cash flow collapsed $852M → $79M as the lending book consumes cash; SBC-adjusted FCF ≈ $0.
OverhangTiger Global fully exited Q1 2026. SoftBank (10.1%) + Uber (13.5%) = 23.6% unlocked overhang.
MonetizationRevenue per user ~$71/yr vs Uber ~$280+ — a 4× monetization gap. Sea Money is well ahead on lending.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$14.50B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2026)
Enterprise Value
$9.50B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$3.37B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
87.8×
via financials
Forward P/E
55.0×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
4.3×
via financials
P/B
2.4×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
19.0×
calculated
PEG
—
calculated
Revenue Growth
24.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
[awaiting: segment-level only]
SEC filing
Operating Margin
4.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
5.9%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$290M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
2.0%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.2×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
3.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
5.5%
exchange
Institutional Own.
58.0%
13F
Insider Own.
3.7%
proxy
Shares Out.
4.09B
SEC filing
Float
3.50B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$2.40
Base$5.60
Bull$7.35
Now $3.54
Bear Case
$2.40
Indonesia cap extends to delivery; multiple compresses
Base Case
$5.60
SOTP of mobility + deliveries + fintech + net cash
Bull Case
$7.35
SOTP upper band; fintech inflection
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
12%
Terminal Growth
3%
Projection
7y
Rev CAGR
16%
Intrinsic / Share
$5.90
Margin of Safety
37%
Reverse DCF implies only 2.7% FCF growth priced in.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY23 | — | 6.8× | — |
| FY24 | 763.0× | 5.2× | 47.0× |
| FY25 | 72.5× | 4.6× | 22.0× |
| TTM · | 87.8× | 4.3× | 19.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAB | $14.5B | 87.8× | 4.3× | 19.0× | +24.0% | — | 5.9% |
| SE | $95B | 42.0× | 4.8× | 24.0× | +28.0% | 43.0% | 9.0% |
| UBER | $160B | 32.0× | 3.6× | 18.0× | +15.0% | 40.0% | 12.0% |
| GOTO | $7B | — | 5.0× | — | +14.0% | 38.0% | -8.0% |
Financials
| Metric | FY2024 | FY2025 | Q1 2026 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.80B | $3.37B | $955M | +24% |
| Adj. EBITDA | $313M | $500M | $154M | +46% |
| Net Income (GAAP) *Q1'26 includes $118M fair-value gains | $19M | $200M | $120M* | — |
| SBC Expense | $279M | $250M | $78M | — |
| Item | Q1 2026 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Net Cash | $5.0B | Fortress — $1.22 / share |
| Gross Loan Portfolio | $1,438M | +130% YoY; cash-consuming |
| Accumulated Deficit | ($17.3B) | FY2024 |
| Convertible Notes (2030) | $1.5B | Future dilution risk |
| Shares Outstanding | 4.09B | First net decline Q1'26 |
Operating cash flow collapsed 91% as the lending book consumes cash; SBC-adjusted FCF ≈ $0.
| Component | FY2024 | FY2025 | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | $852M | $79M | −91% as lending consumes cash |
| SBC Expense | $279M | $250M | Non-cash addback |
| Adj. Free Cash Flow | — | $290M | Excludes SBC |
| Net Income (GAAP) | $19M | $200M | Partly fair-value gains |
Source: SEC 6-K filings (FY2024, FY2025, Q1 2026). Figures in USD.
Catalysts
Jun 1 '26
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Indonesia 8% commission cap effective
Presidential Reg 27/2026. 3–10% of EBITDA at risk; may extend to 4-wheel/delivery.
May '26
Product
Superbank consolidation into Grab
Profitable in FY25; consolidates as a Grab subsidiary.
Q1 2027
Product
Digital banking launch
Expands DFS monetization.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 90:1 super-voting structure | Key Person | Critical | High | Founder controls ~69–75% of votes on ~3.7% economics. CEO cannot be removed; activists have zero leverage. |
| Indonesia 8% commission cap | Regulatory | High | High | 21–23% of revenue exposed; 3–10% of EBITDA at risk; potential extension to delivery. |
| SBC-adjusted FCF ≈ $0 | Execution | High | Medium | GAAP profit is partly fair-value gains; operating cash flow collapsed as lending consumes cash. |
| Institutional overhang | Dilution/Capital | Medium | Medium | SoftBank + Uber 23.6% unlocked; $1.5B convertible notes (2030). Tiger Global already exited. |
| Commodity services, weak moat | Competition | High | Medium | Lost #1 Vietnam ride-hailing to Xanh SM; low switching costs. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$3.06$3.54$5.62
RSI (14)
38
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.95
-10.4%below
200-Day MA
$4.40
-19.5%below
Avg Vol (30d)
62M
+12%vs average
Support Levels
$3.40$3.06$2.80
Resistance Levels
$3.95$4.40$5.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Uber Technologies | ~490M | 13.5% | flat | Q1 2026 |
| SoftBank Vision Fund | ~370M | 10.1% | -0.2pp | Q1 2026 |
| Morgan Stanley IM | ~199M | 5.4% | +0.3pp | Q1 2026 |
| Tiger Global | 0 | 0% | -100pp | Q1 2026 |
Insider Activity
Founder holds ~3.7% economics but ~69–75% of votes via Class B (90:1).
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Tan | CEO / Co-founder | Hold | ~3.7% econ | — | — | 69–75% votes |
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRAB | $14.5B | 87.8× | 4.3× | 19.0× | +24.0% | — | 5.9% |
| SE | $95B | 42.0× | 4.8× | 24.0× | +28.0% | 43.0% | 9.0% |
| UBER | $160B | 32.0× | 3.6× | 18.0× | +15.0% | 40.0% | 12.0% |
| GOTO | $7B | — | 5.0× | — | +14.0% | 38.0% | -8.0% |
Research Notes
2026-05-30Internal
88-claim validation audit
83 verified, 9 partial, 1 corrected, 2 unverifiable. Corrected: ATH $16.89→$17.06, GoTo merger probability 60–70%→30–50%, Sea Money $5B→$9.2B loan book.
2026-03-24Company IR
EGM doubles voting ratio to 90:1
85.9% FOR / 14.1% AGAINST. Justified by MAS requirement for GXS Bank Singaporean control. No time-based sunset.