CompaniesAYA
Overview
AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
Basic MaterialsGoldSilverMiningMorocco
$19.33+1.2%
Market Cap
$2.76B
company filings (Jun 2026)
P/E (TTM)
35.9×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
247.0%
+247%SEC filing
Gross Margin
54.9%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
—
calculated
Upside to FV
—
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Morocco silver producer growing revenue +247% — but priced to perfection at an all-time high (14.95× sales vs 2–5× peers) with zero margin of safety.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 13d ago
Thesis
Aya Gold & Silver is a Morocco-focused silver producer whose revenue has compounded +247% YoY (TTM $285.5M) as the Zgounder mill ramped, with the Boumadine polymetallic project as the next growth leg. The forensic conclusion is that the extraordinary growth is real but fully priced: the stock sits at 99% of its all-time high on 14.95× sales versus 2–5× for precious-metals peers, leaving no margin of safety. The 'no dilution' narrative is also false — shares are up ~36% over three years via three bought-deal raises.
Bull Case
GrowthTTM revenue +247% to $285.5M; Q1 2026 revenue $117.3M (+55.8% QoQ) with $48.3M net income as Zgounder scaled.
OptionalityBoumadine growth project: $1.1B after-tax NPV (5%), 35.2% IRR, ~26.5M AgEq oz/yr over ~18 years; could materially expand production from 2027.
Balance SheetNet cash ~$71.4M ($171.7M cash vs $100.2M debt); 24.1% ROE and 30.5% net margin.
Bear Case
Valuation14.95× sales and 27.2× EV/EBITDA at 99% of the all-time high — peers trade 2–5× sales. Zero margin of safety.
Dilution'No dilution' claim is false: shares +36.2% over 3 years (105M→143M) via three bought-deal raises totalling $221M.
Funding GapBoumadine needs $405M initial capex vs ~$172M cash — likely more dilution; mining projects average >60% schedule slip and 30–40% cost overruns.
Cash FlowFree cash flow was negative four straight years (−$34M/−$99M/−$102M/−$4M, 2022–25); only Q1 2026 turned meaningfully positive (+$53.4M).
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.76B
company filings (Jun 2026)
Enterprise Value
$2.69B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$286M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
35.9×
via financials
Forward P/E
13.3×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
14.9×
via financials
P/B
[awaiting: filing]
via financials
EV/EBITDA
27.2×
calculated
PEG
—
calculated
Revenue Growth
247.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
54.9%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filing
Net Margin
30.5%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filing
FCF Yield
—
calculated
Debt / Equity
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filing
Current Ratio
[awaiting: filing]
SEC filing
Short Interest
[awaiting: exchange]
exchange
Institutional Own.
42.2%
13F
Insider Own.
3.4%
proxy
Shares Out.
143.0M
SEC filing
Float
[awaiting: exchange]
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$12.00
Base$22.00
Bull$32.00
Now $19.33
Bear Case
$12.00
Silver ~$20; multiple compresses toward peer range
Base Case
$22.00
Silver $30–35; production ramps but priced-in (35% prob)
Bull Case
$32.00
Silver $35–40; Boumadine de-risks (25% prob)
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches Deep Dive.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | $2.76B | 35.9× | 14.9× | 27.2× | +247.0% | 54.9% | 30.5% |
| AG | $8B | 22.0× | 3.8× | 12.5× | +15.0% | — | — |
| PAAS | $12B | 18.5× | 3.2× | 9.8× | +8.0% | — | — |
| CDE | $5B | 25.0× | 2.5× | 11.0× | +20.0% | — | — |
| HL | $4B | 20.0× | 2.8× | 10.5× | +5.0% | — | — |
| EXK | $1.5B | 28.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +12.0% | — | — |
Financials
| Quarter | Revenue | Net Income | FCF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2025 | $33.8M | $6.9M | -$6.6M |
| Q2 2025 | $38.6M | $8.8M | -$4.4M |
| Q3 2025 | $54.3M | $12.4M | -$2.2M |
| Q4 2025 | $75.3M | $17.4M | +$9.0M |
| Q1 2026 | $117.3M | $48.3M | +$53.4M |
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash | $171.7M | — |
| Total Debt | $100.2M | — |
| Net Cash | $71.4M | — |
| Shares Outstanding | 143.0M | was 105.0M in 2022 (+36.2%) |
'No dilution' claim is FALSE: +36.2% over 3 years via three bought-deal raises ($221M total). FCF negative four straight years through 2025.
| Dilution Year | Shares | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 105.0M | base |
| 2023 | 122.4M | +16.5% (bought-deal $75M @ C$4.30) |
| 2024 | 130.8M | +6.9% ($46M @ C$8.50 + ATM) |
| 2025 | 142.0M | +8.6% (bought-deal $100M @ C$10.50, Boumadine) |
| 2026 YTD | 143.0M | +0.7% (options/RSUs) |
Quarterly revenue/net-income/FCF trend from company filings (USD). Hockey-stick ramp as Zgounder mill scaled; FCF only turned positive in Q1 2026.
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026 earnings
Watch whether the Q1 FCF inflection holds as Zgounder runs at capacity.
H2 '27
Operationshigh relevance
Boumadine construction → first production
Construction began Q4 2025; production targeted H2 2027. Slippage/cost-overrun risk is high.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priced to perfection at all-time high | Market/Macro | High | High | 14.95× sales vs peers 2–5×; any silver pullback or guidance miss re-rates sharply. |
| Boumadine funding gap → further dilution | Execution | High | Medium | $405M capex vs ~$172M cash; serial diluter history points to another raise. |
| Mining project execution risk | Execution | Medium | High | Industry-average >60% schedule slip, 30–40% cost overruns on new builds. |
| Silver price exposure | Market/Macro | High | Medium | Thesis depends on $30+ silver; a move to $20 implies roughly half the current price. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$11.45$19.33$30.15
RSI (14)
58
neutral
50-Day MA
$18.50
+4.5%above
200-Day MA
$16.20
+19.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
1.1M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$16.20$14.00$11.45
Resistance Levels
$24.00$30.15
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Institutions hold ~42.2%; insiders ~3.4%. No notable open-market insider buying flagged in research.
Insider transactions pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AYA | $2.76B | 35.9× | 14.9× | 27.2× | +247.0% | 54.9% | 30.5% |
| AG | $8B | 22.0× | 3.8× | 12.5× | +15.0% | — | — |
| PAAS | $12B | 18.5× | 3.2× | 9.8× | +8.0% | — | — |
| CDE | $5B | 25.0× | 2.5× | 11.0× | +20.0% | — | — |
| HL | $4B | 20.0× | 2.8× | 10.5× | +5.0% | — | — |
| EXK | $1.5B | 28.0× | 4.0× | 14.0× | +12.0% | — | — |
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
Forensic complete — 5.6/10 watchlist
Extraordinary growth (rev +247% real, Boumadine could ~6x output) but priced to perfection at the all-time high. P/S 14.95× vs peers 2–5×; zero margin of safety; serial diluter.
2026-05-24Internal
Added to screen
Phase 1 screening note. Promoted to deep dive after gold-complex review.