CompaniesAFYA
Overview
AFYA
Afya Limited
HealthcareMedical EducationBrazilTake-Private Risk
$14.00+1.4%
Market Cap
$1.22B
SEC 20-F (FY2025)
P/E (TTM)
8.3×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
11.9%
+11.9%SEC filing
Gross Margin
64.3%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
42.1%
calculated
Upside to FV
—
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Brazil's largest medical-education group (Moody's Aaa.br) at 8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA and ~5% yield — but Bertelsmann's 57.5% voting control makes a sub-cost take-private the base case.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 22d ago
Thesis
Afya is the largest medical-education group in Brazil — a regulated near-monopoly on accredited medical-school seats. FY2025 revenue was R$3.7B (+11.9%) and net income R$768M (+18.4%) at a best-in-class 45.4% EBITDA margin, with a Moody's Aaa.br rating and net debt/EBITDA of just 0.7×. It trades at 8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA and a ~5% dividend yield — the cheapest, highest-quality fundamentals in the batch. The catch: Bertelsmann controls 57.5% of votes via dual-class shares and bought in at $26.90 in 2022, so a take-private (even at $18–20, still below their cost, ~+38% from here) is the base case and Goldman rates it SELL at $15. Phase 1.
Bull Case
Quality / Valuation8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA, ~5% yield, 45.4% EBITDA margin, Moody's Aaa.br — best fundamentals in the batch.
MoatRegulated medical-education near-monopoly; accredited seat supply is constrained by Brazilian regulation.
Take-Private FloorBertelsmann paid $26.90 in 2022; a take-private at even $20 implies ~+38% from current levels.
Bear Case
ControlBertelsmann holds 57.5% of votes via dual-class; minority holders have a lowball take-private risk and weak Cayman-incorporation protections.
Macro / FXBrazil Selic at 14.75% pressures EM equities and the BRL→USD translation of earnings.
Sell-sideGoldman Sachs rates it SELL with a $15 target.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$1.22B
SEC 20-F (FY2025)
Enterprise Value
$1.50B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$700M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
8.3×
via financials
Forward P/E
[awaiting: consensus]
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.9×
via financials
P/B
1.7×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
4.7×
calculated
PEG
—
calculated
Revenue Growth
11.9%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
64.3%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
25.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
15.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$130M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
42.1%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.6×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
[awaiting: exchange]
exchange
Institutional Own.
[awaiting: 13F]
13F
Insider Own.
[awaiting: proxy]
proxy
Shares Out.
93.0M
SEC filing
Float
30.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$11.00
Base$18.00
Bull$22.00
Now $14.00
Bear Case
$11.00
No deal; BRL weakness and Selic compress the multiple
Base Case
$18.00
Take-private at $18–20 (below Bertelsmann's $26.90 cost)
Bull Case
$22.00
Re-rate toward fundamentals or a fairer take-out price
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches Deep Dive.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
Peer set pending
Comparable companies awaiting selection.
Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Phase 1 — full backfill pending; FY2025 headline figures (R$): revenue R$3.7B (+11.9%), net income R$768M (+18.4%), 45.4% EBITDA margin, net debt/EBITDA 0.7×, 40% dividend payout.
Catalysts
2026
M&Ahigh relevance
Potential Bertelsmann take-private
Control holder is below cost basis; a tender at $18–20 is the base case and the key swing event.
Q3 '26
Earnings
Quarterly results
Watch margin durability and the Selic/BRL impact on USD-translated earnings.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lowball take-private by Bertelsmann | Key Person | High | High | 57.5% voting control + Cayman incorporation; minority holders could be squeezed below intrinsic value. |
| Selic 14.75% / BRL depreciation | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Pressures EM equity multiples and USD-translated earnings/dividend. |
| Regulatory change to medical-seat supply | Regulatory | Low | Low | The moat depends on Brazil's accreditation regime remaining constrained. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$12.00$14.00$18.00
RSI (14)
47
neutral
50-Day MA
$14.20
-1.4%below
200-Day MA
$15.00
-6.7%below
Avg Vol (30d)
0.4M
-5%vs average
Support Levels
$12.00
Resistance Levels
$18.00$20.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Bertelsmann controls ~57.5% of votes (dual-class) at a ~$26.90 cost basis; public float ~30M shares.
Insider transactions pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
Peer set pending
Comparable companies awaiting selection.
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
Take-private setup
Best fundamentals in the batch (8.3× P/E, 4.7× EV/EBITDA, 45.4% EBITDA margin, Aaa.br) but Bertelsmann's 57.5% voting control and sub-cost basis make a lowball take-private the base case. Goldman SELL at $15.