CompaniesCLOV
Overview
CLOV
Clover Health
HealthcareMedicare AdvantageTurnaround
$4.73+1.7%
Market Cap
$2.49B
SEC 10-Q (Q1 2026)
P/E (TTM)
—
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
62.0%
+62%SEC filing
Gross Margin
18.4%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
3.0%
calculated
Upside to FV
—
vs fair value
Conviction
3/5Medicare Advantage insurer at its first profitable quarter — but already up +199% off the low and trading above the $4.15 analyst target on a 47× forward P/E.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 13d ago
Thesis
Clover Health is a tech-enabled Medicare Advantage insurer using its Clover Assistant AI platform to manage chronic disease earlier. Q1 2026 delivered ~$749M revenue (+62% YoY) and $27.3M net income — its first profitable quarter — and the SEC investigation closed in Sept 2024. But the stock is NOT cheap today: it has re-rated +199% off its $1.58 low to within ~9% of its 52-week high, trades at a 47× forward P/E, and sits ABOVE the $4.15 analyst consensus target. The recovery trade is substantially complete.
Bull Case
InflectionFirst-ever GAAP profitable quarter (Q1 2026, $27.3M net income); FY2026 guide ~$2.81–2.92B revenue (+49%) and $0–20M GAAP net income.
AI MoatClover Assistant aggregates 100+ data sources; cited ~8% MCR improvement after year one, 95%+ member retention, 53% PPO growth.
Balance SheetZero debt, $203M cash, $75M FCF. A federal-court ruling forcing a 3.5→4.5 PPO star recalc could unlock ~$120M of bonus payments (external/unverified).
Bear Case
ValuationUp +199% off the low to within ~9% of the high; consensus target $4.15 is BELOW the price (−12% implied). Not a beaten-down deep-value setup.
Multiple47× forward P/E on razor-thin first-year profitability — priced for perfection; any MCR miss reopens an infinite-P/E scenario.
Margins18.4% gross margin; Medicare Advantage is structurally low-margin and any MCR deterioration flips profit to loss fast.
GovernanceSPAC legacy (2021 Social Capital), dual-class structure, only 4.4% insider ownership; two prior sub-$1 delisting notices.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.49B
SEC 10-Q (Q1 2026)
Enterprise Value
$2.29B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$2.21B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
—
via financials
Forward P/E
47.3×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
1.1×
via financials
P/B
7.3×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
[awaiting: calc]
calculated
PEG
—
calculated
Revenue Growth
62.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
18.4%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
3.6%
SEC filing
Net Margin
-2.6%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$75M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
3.0%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.0×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.3×
SEC filing
Short Interest
6.9%
exchange
Institutional Own.
30.0%
13F
Insider Own.
4.4%
proxy
Shares Out.
480.0M
SEC filing
Float
400.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.00
Base$5.50
Bull$9.00
Now $4.73
Bear Case
$3.00
MCR deteriorates, returns to losses; multiple collapses
Base Case
$5.50
$2.85B rev, $50–60M adj EBITDA; stays $4–7 range (analyst $4.15)
Bull Case
$9.00
Consecutive profitable years + Counterpart Health licensing; re-rate to tech-enabled insurer
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches Deep Dive.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
Peer set pending
Comparable companies awaiting selection.
Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Phase 1 — quarterly backfill pending; headline figures from SEC 10-Q.
Catalysts
Aug '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q2 2026 — confirm GAAP profitability
A second consecutive profitable quarter would signal a durable inflection and could re-rate toward 1.5–2× P/S.
Q1 '27
Regulatory
CMS 2027 rate notice (new 4.5-star PPO)
Higher star rating unlocks quality-bonus payments (~$120M cited, unverified) and lifts 2027 benchmark reimbursement.
12–24 mo
Business
Counterpart Health first B2B licensing deal
First third-party payer licensing revenue would shift the valuation framework toward tech-enabled insurer.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock ahead of analyst target | Market/Macro | High | High | Consensus $4.15 is below the price; +199% run already prices in much of the recovery. |
| MCR deterioration | Execution | High | Medium | 18.4% gross margin; any medical-cost inflation or adverse selection flips profit to loss. |
| 47× forward P/E | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Priced for perfection; a single loss quarter reopens an infinite-P/E narrative. |
| CMS reimbursement / governance overhang | Regulatory | Medium | Medium | MA rate cuts and star-methodology changes; dual-class structure with only 4.4% insider ownership. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$1.58$4.73$5.18
RSI (14)
60
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.40
+7.5%above
200-Day MA
$3.40
+39.1%above
Avg Vol (30d)
20M
+5%vs average
Support Levels
$4.15$3.50$1.58
Resistance Levels
$5.18
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Institutions ~30%; insiders ~4.4% (dual-class). Short interest ~6.9%.
Insider transactions pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
Peer set pending
Comparable companies awaiting selection.
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
First profitable quarter — but fully re-rated
$27.3M Q1 net income, first profitable quarter ever. Data-conflict flag was stale. However the +199% run leaves the stock above the $4.15 analyst target on a 47× forward P/E; recovery trade largely complete.