CompaniesABEV
Overview
ABEV
Ambev
Consumer DefensiveBeveragesBrazilCash-Rich
$3.20+0.6%
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC 20-F
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
5.0%
+5%SEC filing
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
36.5%
calculated
Upside to FV
+5.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Consumer-defensive beverage giant at a 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap — slow grower, fortress balance sheet.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 23d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 84/100
Value4/5
Future2/3
Past4/4
Health3/4
Dividend3/3
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Ambev is the dominant Latin American brewer (an AB InBev affiliate). A 36.5% FCF yield and 39.4% cash-to-market-cap make it a defensive cash machine; the trade-off is low single-digit volume growth and heavy BRL exposure. It sits outside the core sub-$10 small-cap mandate as a $50B mega-cap, so it is tracked as a defensive watchlist name rather than a deep-value buy. Phase 1.
Bull Case
Cash Generation~36.5% FCF yield and cash equal to ~39.4% of market cap; near-zero leverage — a defensive cash machine.
FranchiseDominant Latin American brewer with category-leading brands and an AB InBev distribution/cost backbone.
DefensiveConsumer-staple demand and a strong balance sheet provide downside protection in risk-off regimes.
Bear Case
GrowthLow single-digit volume growth; mature category caps the re-rating case.
FX / MacroBRL depreciation erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend; Brazil-tax and Selic dynamics weigh on EM multiples.
Mandate Fit$50B mega-cap — outside the sub-$10 small-cap deep-value focus; included only as a defensive comparator.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$50.00B
SEC 20-F
Enterprise Value
$46.00B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$16.00B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
13.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
12.0×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
3.1×
via financials
P/B
2.0×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
calculated
PEG
1.5×
calculated
Revenue Growth
5.0%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
50.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
28.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$4.00B
SEC filing
FCF Yield
36.5%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
–
exchange
Institutional Own.
6.9%
13F
Insider Own.
0.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
15.70B
SEC filing
Float
6.00B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$2.60
Base$3.39
Bull$4.00
Now $3.20
Bear Case
$2.60
Analyst low 12-month target (10 analysts)
Base Case
$3.39
Analyst mean 12-month target (10 analysts)
Bull Case
$4.00
Analyst high 12-month target (10 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$18.20B
FCF Yield
36.4%
Balance Sheet
$16.53B net cash
Rev CAGR
3%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | 2.6× | 0.5× | 1.1× |
| FY23 | 2.8× | 0.5× | 1.2× |
| FY24 | 2.0× | 0.3× | 0.1× |
| FY25 | 2.5× | 0.4× | 0.8× |
| TTM · | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 79,709 | 79,737 | 89,453 | 88,242 |
| Cost of Revenue | 40,422 | 39,292 | 43,615 | 42,864 |
| Gross Profit | 39,287 | 40,445 | 45,838 | 45,378 |
| Operating Income | 17,403 | 18,773 | 21,507 | 22,323 |
| EBITDA | 23,085 | 24,270 | 29,012 | 28,974 |
| Net Income | 14,458 | 14,502 | 14,437 | 15,503 |
| Diluted EPS | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.93 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 14,926 | 16,059 | 28,596 | 18,638 |
| Total Assets | 137,958 | 132,644 | 162,508 | 145,087 |
| Total Debt | 3,845 | 3,501 | 3,453 | 3,387 |
| Total Liabilities | 54,630 | 52,500 | 62,928 | 56,312 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 81,956 | 78,969 | 98,642 | 87,914 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 15,742 | 15,749 | 15,728 | 15,617 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 20,642 | 24,711 | 26,099 | 24,450 |
| Capital Expenditure | (6,533) | (6,004) | (4,749) | (4,590) |
| Free Cash Flow | 14,109 | 18,707 | 21,350 | 19,860 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (5,004) | (5,766) | (5,463) | (4,950) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (16,338) | (16,115) | (10,352) | (26,772) |
Figures normalized from Ambev S.A.'s SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-03. BRL millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 20-F filed 2026-03-03 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earnings
Quarterly results
Watch volume trends and the BRL impact on USD-translated cash returns.
2026
Macro
Brazil Selic path
Lower rates would support EM consumer-staple multiples and the dividend's relative appeal.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRL depreciation vs USD | Market/Macro | Medium | High | Erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend. |
| Low structural growth | Competition | Medium | High | Mature beer category limits multiple expansion. |
| Brazil tax/regulatory regime | Regulatory | Low | Medium | Dividend-withholding and excise changes can reduce net cash returns to nonresidents. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.00$3.20$3.50
RSI (14)
50
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.15
+1.6%above
200-Day MA
$2.90
+10.3%above
Avg Vol (30d)
15M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.90$2.00
Resistance Levels
$3.50
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| First Eagle Investment Management, LLC | 347.0M | 2.20% | +3.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| GQG Partners LLC | 187.0M | 1.19% | +8.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 34.9M | 0.22% | +43.2% | 2026-03-31 |
| Seafarer Capital Partners, LLC | 28.1M | 0.18% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Renaissance Technologies, LLC | 27.4M | 0.17% | +6.5% | 2026-03-31 |
| Massachusetts Financial Services Co. | 26.5M | 0.17% | -24.1% | 2026-03-31 |
| Brandes Investment Partners L.P. | 23.1M | 0.15% | +2.1% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Controlled affiliate of AB InBev; large free float trades as ADRs. Detailed 13F/insider breakdown pending.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zagman Paulo Andre | See Remarks | Sell | 136.2K | $3.41 | 2026-05-05 | $464.6K |
| Cavalcanti De Lacerda Eduardo Braga | See Remarks | Sell | 152.4K | $2.85 | 2026-03-27 | $434.3K |
| Malik Parente Guilherme | See Remarks | Sell | 21K | $2.76 | 2026-03-24 | $57.9K |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABEV | $50.43B | 17.1× | 0.6× | 1.3× | 0.0% | 51.0% | 18.0% |
| KOF | $22.55B | – | 0.1× | 4.0× | +1.0% | 46.0% | 8.0% |
| FMX | $43.04B | 27.6× | 0.1× | 2.5× | +6.0% | 41.0% | 3.0% |
| BUD | $157.64B | 23.0× | 2.6× | 51.9× | +12.0% | 56.0% | 12.0% |
| TAP | $7.67B | – | 0.7× | 5.7× | +2.0% | 39.0% | -19.0% |
| STZ | $25.41B | 15.4× | 2.8× | 10.9× | -11.0% | 52.0% | 18.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-05-25Consensus
Defensive cash machine
FCF yield 36.5%, cash 39.4% of cap. Growth is the constraint and the $50B cap is outside the core sub-$10 mandate — tracked as a defensive comparator.