CompaniesBTG
Overview
BTG
B2Gold Corp
Basic MaterialsGoldMiningProducer
$4.68+1.3%
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
117.7%
+117.7%SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Upside to FV
+38.9%
vs fair value
Conviction
4/5Multi-mine gold producer with Goose first-gold in 2025 and a 3.4% dividend — operating leverage to a $4,500/oz gold price.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 15d ago
Thesis
B2Gold is a diversified gold producer (Fekola, Masbate, Otjikoto) bringing the Goose mine (Nunavut, Canada) to first gold in 2025. Minimal leverage (D/E 0.14), an 11.8% FCF yield and a 3.4% dividend give it both yield and torque: at $4,500/oz gold, incremental ounces drop a high margin straight to cash. The stock trades at ~0.64× P/NAV vs peers at 0.85–1.1×, with the market pricing Mali geopolitical risk as a near-permanent loss.
Bull Case
CatalystGoose project first gold in 2025 de-risks the growth story; Fekola underground first ore (Q4 2025) lowers unit costs.
LeverageRevenue +117.7% and earnings +250% as gold re-rates; ~10.9% FCF yield; analyst target ~$6.60 (+46%).
Balance SheetD/E 0.14 (only ~$10.5M lease debt), ~$387M cash and a 3.4% dividend — rare combination in the miners.
Bear Case
GeopoliticsMali accounts for ~55–57% of production; the Fekola permit decision is a binary end-June event under a new mining code.
CommodityLevered to gold both ways — a price reversal compresses the whole thesis.
Goose EconomicsGoose AISC is ~$1,000–1,100/oz (NI 43-101), not the lower figures sometimes cited; capex ran to ~$1.0–1.1B (an overrun).
HedgingPrepaid gold contracts cap some upside participation; they expire mid-2025 as an earnings catalyst.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$6.10B
SEC 40-F / company IR
Enterprise Value
$6.14B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$2.10B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
11.0×
via financials
Forward P/E
8.5×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
2.9×
via financials
P/B
1.6×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.0×
calculated
PEG
0.4×
calculated
Revenue Growth
117.7%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
48.0%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
30.0%
SEC filing
Net Margin
18.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$250M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
11.8%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.1×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
2.0×
SEC filing
Short Interest
2.1%
exchange
Institutional Own.
55.0%
13F
Insider Own.
1.5%
proxy
Shares Out.
1.30B
SEC filing
Float
1.28B
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.40
Base$6.50
Bull$11.94
Now $4.68
Bear Case
$3.40
Mali permit lost; gold reverts to $3,000
Base Case
$6.50
Goose ramps on schedule; gold ~$4,000
Bull Case
$11.94
M&A at ~1.2× NAV; full Goose + Fekola UG at $4,500 gold
DCF Summary
DCF awaiting Phase 2+
Discounted cash-flow model is built once research reaches Deep Dive.
Historical Multiples
Multiple history pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.5B | 11.0× | 2.9× | 5.0× | +118.0% | 48.0% | 18.0% |
| GAU | $600M | 8.0× | 1.2× | 3.0× | +89.0% | 42.0% | 24.0% |
| DPM | $8.9B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CXB | $1.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Financials
Income statement pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Balance sheet pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Cash flow pending
Awaiting SEC filing backfill.
Source: SEC 40-F / company IR. AISC ~$1,370/oz Q1; cash ~$387M (Dec 2024). Five-year statement backfill pending.
Catalysts
2025
Producthigh relevance
Goose project FIRST GOLD (Nunavut)
De-risks the growth story; ~85% probability per company guidance.
Q4 2025
Product
Fekola underground first ore
Cost-reduction catalyst.
End-Jun
Regulatoryhigh relevance
Fekola permit decision (Mali)
Binary geopolitical event; ~55–57% of production.
Mid-2025
Macro
Prepaid gold contracts expire
Removes a cap on upside participation — earnings catalyst.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mali permit / geopolitics | Regulatory | High | Medium | ~55–57% of production; Fekola permit is a binary end-June outcome; nationalization is the tail risk. |
| Gold price reversal | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Direct hit to revenue and FCF given operating leverage. |
| Goose AISC / capex higher than guided | Execution | Medium | Medium | Goose AISC ~$1,000–1,100/oz and capex ~$1.0–1.1B; lower project IRR than early estimates. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.60$4.68$4.90
RSI (14)
64
neutral
50-Day MA
$4.30
+8.8%above
200-Day MA
$3.70
+26.5%above
Avg Vol (30d)
18M
+22%vs average
Support Levels
$4.30$3.90
Resistance Levels
$4.90$5.40
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Insider ownership ~1.5%; institutional ownership ~55%.
Insider transactions pending
This section is being deepened.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTG | $5.5B | 11.0× | 2.9× | 5.0× | +118.0% | 48.0% | 18.0% |
| GAU | $600M | 8.0× | 1.2× | 3.0× | +89.0% | 42.0% | 24.0% |
| DPM | $8.9B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CXB | $1.8B | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Research Notes
2026-06-01Internal
Gold-torque + dividend profile
Diversified producer with operating leverage to gold plus a 3.4% yield. Fekola permit (Mali) and Goose ramp are the watch items; Goose AISC corrected upward to ~$1,000–1,100/oz.