CompaniesPAGS
Overview
PAGS
PagSeguro Digital
Financial ServicesFintechPaymentsDigital BankingBrazil
$9.14+1.3%
Market Cap
$2.16B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2025)
P/E (TTM)
9.5×
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
15.6%
+15.6%SEC filing
Gross Margin
31.7%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
6.9%
calculated
Upside to FV
+58.6%
vs fair value
Conviction
5/5Cheapest profitable fintech on every multiple — 9.5× P/E, 22% net margin, shrinking share count, take-rate stable through PIX.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep DiveFull Model
Updated 13d ago
Thesis
PagSeguro trades at 9.5× earnings while compounding net income ~18% YoY and buying back ~3.7% of shares annually. The market prices it as a melting ice cube; the filings show a profitable, net-cash payments-plus-banking franchise whose take rate has stayed near ~4.0% for five straight quarters despite PIX. Re-rating to even half the peer multiple implies meaningful upside, and a Brazilian rate-cut cycle is the catalyst.
Bull Case
ValuationCheapest on every metric vs global fintech peers — #1 on P/E (9.5×), EV/EBITDA (5.8×), P/S, P/B and PEG (0.6×).
Take RateTake rate stable at ~4.0% across 5 quarters; +10bps YoY. In-store POS (higher margin) growing 22% vs 12% online.
Capital Return$300M buyback authorization (~$176M remaining); share count fell ~245M → ~236M YoY. Buyback exceeds SBC dilution — genuine net shrinkage.
Credit QualityNPL 90+ peaked at 3.1% and fell to 3.0%; 210% provision coverage vs Nubank ~170%. Payroll loans are 43% of book at ~1.5% charge-off.
Profitability22% net margin — highest in the peer set. Net income R$472.5M in Q1 2025, +18.3% YoY.
Bear Case
TaxBrazil enacted 10% dividend withholding on nonresidents from Jan 2026 (Law 15,270/2025); no US–Brazil treaty for full credit offset.
CompetitionPIX instant payments structurally pressure transaction economics over time, even if take rate is stable today.
Macro / FXBRL volatility and Selic path drive both financial income and USD-translated returns. The cheap multiple is partly an FX-risk discount.
DisclosureReported FCF (R$1.1B) is inflated by ~R$770M of customer-deposit inflows — a liability, not earnings. Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter.
SentimentShort interest ~15%. Low headline revenue growth (~12%) keeps growth funds away.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$2.16B
SEC 6-K (Q1 2025)
Enterprise Value
$1.67B
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$3.65B
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
9.5×
via financials
Forward P/E
6.5×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
2.1×
via financials
P/B
1.2×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
5.8×
calculated
PEG
0.6×
calculated
Revenue Growth
15.6%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
31.7%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
10.1%
SEC filing
Net Margin
22.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$150M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
6.9%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.4×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.4×
SEC filing
Short Interest
15.0%
exchange
Institutional Own.
62.0%
13F
Insider Own.
22.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
236.0M
SEC filing
Float
184.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$7.50
Base$14.50
Bull$22.00
Now $9.14
Bear Case
$7.50
Continued de-rating, take-rate slips below 3.8%
Base Case
$14.50
11× normalized EPS + buyback accretion
Bull Case
$22.00
Re-rate to half peer median (20× P/E) on rate cuts
DCF Summary
Discount Rate
14.5%
Terminal Growth
3%
Projection
5y
Rev CAGR
11%
Intrinsic / Share
$15.20
Margin of Safety
37%
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY21 | 28.0× | 5.1× | 16.0× |
| FY22 | 12.4× | 2.9× | 9.2× |
| FY23 | 10.8× | 2.6× | 7.4× |
| FY24 | 10.1× | 2.3× | 6.5× |
| TTM · | 9.5× | 2.1× | 5.8× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.2B | 9.5× | 2.1× | 5.8× | +12.0% | 31.7% | 22.0% |
| STNE | $3.8B | 11.2× | 2.8× | 7.5× | +14.0% | 30.0% | 18.0% |
| NU | $58B | 35.0× | 8.5× | 18.0× | +55.0% | 42.0% | 12.0% |
| MELI | $110B | 48.0× | 5.5× | 22.0× | +35.0% | 47.0% | 8.0% |
| WISE | $12B | 32.0× | 6.0× | 15.0× | +25.0% | 60.0% | 15.0% |
| ADYEN | $48B | 52.0× | 12.0× | 28.0× | +20.0% | 65.0% | 14.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | Q1 2024 | Q1 2025 | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 4,399,416 | 5,087,039 | +15.6% |
| Transaction Revenue | 2,983,146 | 3,416,059 | +14.5% |
| Financial Income | 1,416,270 | 1,670,980 | +18% |
| Cost of Sales | (3,015,476) | (3,476,807) | +15.3% |
| Gross Profit | 1,383,940 | 1,610,232 | +16.4% |
| Selling Expenses | (283,575) | (331,087) | +16.7% |
| Admin Expenses | (316,619) | (363,858) | +14.9% |
| Financial Expenses | (307,089) | (348,706) | +13.5% |
| Income Before Tax | 506,905 | 604,155 | +19.2% |
| Tax Expense | (107,477) | (131,614) | +22.5% |
| Net Income | 399,428 | 472,541 | +18.3% |
| Item | Q1 2025 | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | R$ 4.1B | Selic-linked instruments |
| Short-term Investments | R$ 1.2B | Marketable securities |
| Accounts Receivable | R$ 12.5B | Card-issuer settlement float |
| Credit Portfolio (gross) | R$ 2.8B | Loans to merchants |
| Allowance for Losses | (R$ 0.32B) | ECL provision |
| Total Assets | R$ 28.5B | — |
| Client Deposits | R$ 14.8B | PagBank liability |
| Total Debt | R$ 2.5B | Borrowings + financing |
| Total Equity | R$ 6.5B | Book value |
| Net Cash | R$ 2.8B | Cash + STI − Debt ≈ $490M |
| Book Value / Share | R$ 18.57 | ~350M shares outstanding |
Reported FCF (~R$1.1B) is inflated by ~R$770M of customer-deposit inflows (a liability). Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter.
| Component | R$ M | Type |
|---|---|---|
| Core Operating Income (pre-WC) | 491 | Real |
| Less: Capex | (98) | Real |
| Less: Loan Growth (net) | (120) | Real |
| Less: Tax & Interest Paid | (85) | Real |
| Real Core FCF | 188 | Per quarter |
| Customer Deposit Inflows | 520 | Liability — not earnings |
| Payables Increase | 250 | Liability — not earnings |
| Liability-Driven Cash | 770 | Excluded from real FCF |
Source: SEC 6-K (Q1 2025) and company filings. Income in R$ thousands; balance sheet in R$; cash flow in R$ millions. Five-year annual backfill pending.
Catalysts
May–Jun '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q1 2026 earnings + Selic rate decision
Re-rate trigger. Watch take-rate and NPL trend.
Q2–Q3 '26
Macrohigh relevance
Brazil Selic rate-cut cycle
Lower rates lift consumer credit demand and equity multiples.
Aug '26
Earnings
Q2 2026 earnings
Net income trend and take-rate durability in focus.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10% dividend withholding tax on nonresidents (Law 15,270/2025) | Regulatory | High | High | Reduces USD-investor net yield; no US–Brazil treaty for full foreign-tax-credit offset. |
| PIX-driven take-rate compression | Competition | Medium | Medium | Structural pressure on transaction economics; stable so far but a multi-year risk. |
| BRL depreciation vs USD | Market/Macro | Medium | Medium | Erodes USD-translated earnings and the dividend. |
| Short interest ~15% | Market/Macro | Low | Medium | Can amplify drawdowns on any negative print. |
| Data-integrity flags caught in research | Key Person | Low | Low | Prior AI-sourced insider/PIX figures were fabricated and removed; only filing-validated data retained. |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$8.10$9.14$13.40
RSI (14)
41
neutral
50-Day MA
$9.80
-6.7%below
200-Day MA
$10.60
-13.8%below
Avg Vol (30d)
6.2M
-8%vs average
Support Levels
$8.60$8.10$7.50
Resistance Levels
$9.80$10.60$11.40
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages — connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
13F holdings pending
Institutional holder detail awaiting filing.
Insider Activity
Net buyer: ~$150–160M repurchased over the last 12 months; share count down 3.7%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Company (buyback) | Treasury | Buy | ~12–13M | $12.30–12.80 | LTM | $150–160M |
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PAGS | $2.2B | 9.5× | 2.1× | 5.8× | +12.0% | 31.7% | 22.0% |
| STNE | $3.8B | 11.2× | 2.8× | 7.5× | +14.0% | 30.0% | 18.0% |
| NU | $58B | 35.0× | 8.5× | 18.0× | +55.0% | 42.0% | 12.0% |
| MELI | $110B | 48.0× | 5.5× | 22.0× | +35.0% | 47.0% | 8.0% |
| WISE | $12B | 32.0× | 6.0× | 15.0× | +25.0% | 60.0% | 15.0% |
| ADYEN | $48B | 52.0× | 12.0× | 28.0× | +20.0% | 65.0% | 14.0% |
Research Notes
2026-06-03Internal
Cash-flow forensic completed
Confirmed reported FCF is deposit-inflated. Real core FCF ≈ R$188M/quarter after capex, net loan growth, tax and interest. Thesis intact on a normalized basis.
2026-05-25SEC EDGAR
Q1 2025 6-K cross-validated
Income statement and balance sheet reconciled against the 6-K. Take rate 3.99%, NPL 90+ 3.0%, provision coverage 210%, net cash R$8.1B.
2026-05-20Internal
Three AI-sourced figures removed
Fabricated insider-buying (UBS +1200%), a PIX-revenue line, and a peer drill result were caught and deleted. Only filing-backed numbers remain.