CompaniesBMBL
Overview
BMBL
Bumble Inc
Communication ServicesConsumer InternetDatingTurnaround
$2.72+1.5%
Market Cap
$413M
SEC 10-K
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Rev Growth YoY
-14.1%
-14.1%SEC filing
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filing
FCF Yield
56.9%
calculated
Upside to FV
+59.6%
vs fair value
Conviction
2/5Founder-led dating platform, 'cheap' at ~0.4× sales — but 8 straight quarters of paying-user decline make it a value trap, not a turnaround.
Research Depth
ScreeningDeep ResearchFull Model
Updated 22d ago
Quality Snowflake
Overall 50/100
Value4/4
Future0/2
Past3/4
Health3/4
Dividend0/1
Each axis scores the checks for which data is available (filled = pass, hollow = no data). Computed from the sourced metrics on this page, not a third-party rating.
Thesis
Bumble is a contrarian turnaround: a 110-agent deep dive (Sprints 12–14) on a founder-led dating platform trading below 1× sales with a high FCF yield. Subscriber trends and competitive pressure from Match's portfolio are the swing factors — depth of research is high, conviction deliberately low.
Bull Case
Cash FlowHigh FCF yield (~57%); trades at ~0.4× revenue and below book.
BrandDifferentiated women-first brand with global reach.
M&AAt ~$413M cap on $931M revenue, acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE; a take-private at even 1.0× revenue would be ~2× the stock.
Bear Case
Structural DeclinePaying users 2.6M→2.1M over 8 consecutive quarters — structural, not cyclical. Revenue −2.5% YoY, the first-ever annual decline.
Second Brand DyingBadoo revenue −17% YoY; Gen Z shifting to Hinge/Tinder/IRL meetups.
Debt$475M at SOFR+8% (~13% effective), maturing Nov 2028 — crushing interest expense against a shrinking top line.
Instability3rd CEO in 3 years; $130M restructuring charge cut ~350 employees (31%). Blackstone (13%) actively exiting.
Key Metrics
Market Cap
$413M
SEC 10-K
Enterprise Value
$765M
calculated
Revenue (TTM)
$931M
SEC filing
P/E (TTM)
–
via financials
Forward P/E
2.7×
consensus
P/S (TTM)
0.4×
via financials
P/B
0.6×
via financials
EV/EBITDA
6.5×
calculated
PEG
–
calculated
Revenue Growth
-14.1%
SEC filing
Gross Margin
71.9%
SEC filing
Operating Margin
31.5%
SEC filing
Net Margin
-71.0%
SEC filing
Free Cash Flow
$235M
SEC filing
FCF Yield
56.9%
calculated
Debt / Equity
0.8×
SEC filing
Current Ratio
1.2×
SEC filing
Short Interest
11.8%
exchange
Institutional Own.
89.1%
13F
Insider Own.
3.0%
proxy
Shares Out.
113.0M
SEC filing
Float
90.0M
exchange
Valuation
Price vs Fair Value
Bear$3.50
Base$4.34
Bull$5.00
Now $2.72
Bear Case
$3.50
Analyst low 12-month target (12 analysts)
Base Case
$4.34
Analyst mean 12-month target (12 analysts)
Bull Case
$5.00
Analyst high 12-month target (12 analysts)
Cash-Flow Snapshot
FCF (TTM)
$235M
FCF Yield
56.8%
Balance Sheet
$352M net debt
Rev CAGR
2%
Free cash flow and balance sheet from the latest filings. A full multi-scenario DCF is built at the deep-research stage; the fair-value range above is the working estimate until then.
Historical Multiples
| Year | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA |
|---|---|---|---|
| FY22 | – | 3.0× | – |
| FY23 | – | 1.8× | 23.3× |
| FY24 | – | 0.8× | – |
| FY25 | – | 0.5× | – |
| TTM · | – | 0.5× | 3.0× |
Current multiple highlighted vs trailing history.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Financials
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | 903.5 | 1,052 | 1,072 | 965.7 |
| Cost of Revenue | 249.5 | 307.8 | 318.8 | 281.5 |
| Gross Profit | 654.0 | 744.0 | 752.8 | 684.1 |
| Operating Income | 42.5 | 53.4 | 201.1 | 240.5 |
| EBITDA | 3.1 | 94.9 | (634.7) | (792.7) |
| Net Income | (79.7) | (4.2) | (557.0) | (693.1) |
| Diluted EPS | -0.62 | -0.03 | -4.61 | -6.03 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cash & Equivalents | 402.6 | 355.6 | 204.3 | 175.8 |
| Total Assets | 3,693 | 3,625 | 2,525 | 1,425 |
| Total Debt | 641.9 | 635.4 | 629.5 | 599.4 |
| Total Liabilities | 1,239 | 1,288 | 1,176 | 744.0 |
| Shareholders' Equity | 1,628 | 1,635 | 824.5 | 570.0 |
| Shares Out. (M) | 129.8 | 130.7 | 107.1 | 129.6 |
| Line Item | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 132.9 | 182.1 | 123.4 | 250.4 |
| Capital Expenditure | (16.3) | (14.9) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Free Cash Flow | 116.6 | 167.2 | 96.7 | 238.7 |
| Investing Cash Flow | (86.1) | (24.8) | (26.8) | (11.7) |
| Financing Cash Flow | (15.0) | (198.9) | (250.8) | (268.1) |
Figures normalized from Bumble Inc.'s SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-16. USD millions; EPS and share count per their units. Annual periods. Source: SEC 10-K filed 2026-03-16 ↗
Catalysts
Q3 '26
Earningshigh relevance
Q3 2026 results — revenue stabilization
If the decline rate narrows materially (e.g. −5% vs −14%), the market may re-rate from distress toward a turnaround multiple.
H1 '26
Product
Tech Stack 2.0 / product relaunch
A credible app overhaul could slow paying-user attrition; sequential stabilization would be a sentiment catalyst near 52-week lows.
12–36 mo
M&A
Strategic acquisition or take-private
Acquisition-sized for Match, IAC or PE at ~$413M cap.
Risks
| Risk | Category | Severity | Probability | Impact on Thesis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Structural paying-user attrition | Execution | High | High | 8 consecutive quarters of decline; ARPPU gains cannot offset volume losses of this magnitude indefinitely. |
| Debt at ~13% effective rate | Market/Macro | High | Medium | $475M at SOFR+8% maturing Nov 2028; refinancing risk if FCF deteriorates. |
| Management instability | Key Person | Medium | Medium | Third CEO in three years; no strategic continuity. |
| Demographic headwind | Competition | High | High | Gen Z abandoning the category for Hinge/Tinder/IRL; 'this is Myspace, not Facebook.' |
Technical Snapshot
52-Week Range
$2.61$2.72$8.64
RSI (14)
38
neutral
50-Day MA
$3.10
-12.3%below
200-Day MA
$4.50
-39.6%below
Avg Vol (30d)
3.5M
0%vs average
Support Levels
$2.61$2.30
Resistance Levels
$3.20$4.00
Price path reconstructed from the 52-week range, current price, and 50/200-day moving averages. Connect a live market-data feed for production.
Ownership & Insider Activity
Top Institutional Holders via 13F filings
| Institution | Shares | % Held | Chg QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blackstone Inc | 29.9M | 22.93% | -20% | 2026-03-31 |
| Blackrock Inc. | 6.6M | 5.02% | +6.3% | 2026-03-31 |
| Saba Capital Management, L.P. | 5.3M | 4.09% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Accel Growth Fund V Associates L.L.C. | 5.1M | 3.88% | flat | 2026-03-31 |
| Vanguard Portfolio Management LLC | 4.8M | 3.67% | +100% | 2026-03-31 |
| AQR Capital Management, LLC | 4.3M | 3.33% | +168.8% | 2026-03-31 |
| Dimensional Fund Advisors LP | 4.3M | 3.30% | -7.6% | 2026-03-31 |
Insider Activity
Institutions hold ~89%; insiders ~3%. Blackstone holds ~13% and is actively exiting with no board seats. Short interest ~11.8%.
| Name | Title | Action | Shares | Price | Date | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mather Ann | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 22K | $2.79 | 2026-06-09 | $61K |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 7.5M | $3.51 | 2026-03-17 | $26.2M |
| Hsiao Sissie L | Director | Sell | 3K | $5.82 | 2025-10-06 | $16K |
| Herd Whitney Wolfe | Chief Executive Officer | Sell | 1.4M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $8.5M |
| Blackstone Holdings Iii Gp Management, L.L.C. | Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security | Sell | 16.7M | $6.26 | 2025-08-13 | $104.5M |
Insider & large-holder data from SEC Form 4 · SC 13D/G filings. Institutional holdings aggregated from 13F filers.
Peer Comparison
| Ticker | Mkt Cap | P/E | P/S | EV/EBITDA | Rev Growth | Gross Mgn | Net Mgn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BMBL | $446M | – | 0.5× | 3.0× | -14.0% | 72.0% | -71.0% |
| MTCH | $8.38B | 13.7× | 2.4× | 10.2× | +4.0% | 74.0% | 19.0% |
| GRND | $2.24B | 27.5× | 4.7× | 17.2× | +38.0% | 75.0% | 20.0% |
| IAC | $3.14B | 25.9× | 1.3× | 21.6× | -12.0% | 66.0% | 2.0% |
| PINS | $11.95B | 44.4× | 2.7× | 34.0× | +18.0% | 80.0% | 8.0% |
| SNAP | $9.46B | – | 1.6× | – | +12.0% | 56.0% | -7.0% |
Recognizable sector comparables. Multiples are trailing-twelve-month figures from market and exchange data; lowest multiple in each column highlighted. Loss-making peers show no P/E.
Research Notes
2026-05-26Internal
Value trap / NO-GO (7/10 conviction)
110-agent deep dive (Sprints 12–14). 'Cheap' at ~0.4× EV/rev but 8 consecutive quarters of paying-user decline = death spiral for a network-effects business. The cheap valuation reflects terminal decline, not opportunity.